Introduction
As Bitcoin pullback pushes into fresh highs and market chatter heats up, several analysts now warn of a potential short-term Bitcoin pullback to the 50-week moving average near the $101K–$104K area before the broader bull trend resumes. This “final flush” thesis is rooted in historical support at long-term averages, elevated leverage across exchanges, and recurring behavior in multi-year cycles. Below we break down the reasoning, evidence, likely scenarios, risk-management ideas, and what traders and longer-term investors might consider. FastBull
What analysts are saying
Several market commentators and outlets flagged that one more flush toward roughly $104,000 — approximately the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) — is possible before buyers return en masse. The call hinges on leverage build-up and the technical habit of the market to retest long-term moving averages as support. Some institutional notes also suggested brief tests below $100K are within the realm of possibility if liquidations accelerate. CoinStats
Why the 50-week moving average matters
Long-term moving averages, like the 50-week SMA, serve as reference lines for many large traders and funds. Historically in recent cycles the 50-week has acted as a “baseline” where the market consolidates or finds support before the next leg up. CoinDesk and other market desks have pointed to the 50-week area (around $101,700 in recent reads) as a critical technical level. If price returns to that line, many technicians view it as an attractive entry zone for swing and position traders. CoinDesk
The on-chain and leverage argument
One of the central reasons behind calls for a short correction is leverage. When long positions on margin and in derivatives build up, a relatively small move downward can trigger cascading liquidations, which amplifies selling pressure and produces a swift drop. Analysts who mentioned a “final flush” point to elevated open interest on derivatives and concentrated long exposure as ingredients that could force a quick re-test of long-term support before buyers step in again. Recent headlines from market outlets and exchange data showed spikes in leverage ahead of volatile moves. FastBull
Price context: where is Bitcoin pullback now, and how deep could it go?
Bitcoin pullback price has moved rapidly through mid-2025 into October, with occasional pullbacks and recoveries. Multiple price trackers and trade desks show Bitcoin pullback has recently traded above the $105k–$125k band at different times, which created both momentum and stretched technical indicators. Several prediction services and analysts still forecast higher cycle highs, but tactical traders worry the first meaningful retracement could reach the 50-week SMA or slightly below to the low-$100k area — the zone often referenced in analyst notes. Investopedia
Historical pattern: why cycles often retest long-term averages
Looking back at previous bull runs, Bitcoin pullback has frequently retraced to major moving averages (50-week and 200-week) before continuing higher. These retests serve multiple functions: they relieve extended overbought conditions, flush leveraged positions, and provide liquidity for new institutional buyers. Traders who study past cycles argue a mid-cycle retest is normal — even healthy — for sustainable rallies. That’s the behavioral backdrop for the “final flush” thesis. CoinDesk
Technical scenarios (short, medium, long term)
Bull-preserving retest (most constructive): Price drops to $101K–$104K (50-week SMA), finds support, and rebounds — forming a higher low and resuming the uptrend. This scenario aligns with the ‘final flush’ idea and preserves the multi-month bull thesis. CoinDesk
Deeper corrective episode (riskier): A cascade of liquidations pushes price just under $100K for a short period before buyers return. Analysts from select institutions have flagged brief sub-$100K tests as plausible if volatility spikes. Bitcoin Magazine
Prolonged correction (least likely under current bullish indicators): Momentum failure and macro shocks could extend losses farther, but this requires material shifts in liquidity or global sentiment and is not the majority view among the cited analysts. MarketWatch
Trading setups and risk management
If you’re considering trading a potential Bitcoin pullback, use strict risk management:
- Plan entries: Consider staggered buying around the 50-week SMA rather than committing full size at a single price.
- Use stop losses: Protect against deeper-than-expected corrections; place stops where your edge invalidates.
- Reduce leverage: The scenario described hinges on forced deleveraging; reducing your leverage limits the chance of margin liquidation.
- Position sizing: Only allocate capital you can tolerate locking up through volatility.
- Watch derivatives open interest: Rising open interest near local highs increases the chance of sharp liquidations. Barchart.com
For long-term investors: perspective and strategy
Long-term holders should distinguish between noise and structural change. A short-lived Bitcoin pullback to the 50-week level would likely represent a routine retest rather than a regime change. For investors with multi-year horizons, such flushes can create optionality to accumulate on weakness, provided they have conviction in Bitcoin pullback fundamentals and risk tolerance for volatility. Consider dollar-cost averaging or phased buys rather than attempting to pick an exact bottom. Investopedia
What to watch next — indicators and events
To better anticipate whether a pullback deepens or quickly reverses, monitor:
- Derivatives open interest & liquidation flows — rapid liquidations can accelerate a move.
- Volume at key levels — whether buyers step in at the 50-week SMA.
- Macro news — risk-off events can trigger broader crypto weakness.
- On-chain flows — large transfers to exchanges often precede selling; accumulation on cold wallets suggests longer-term buyer interest.
- Institutional notes — bank and fund commentary can shift flows quickly. Barchart.com
Counterarguments and caveats
- Not everyone expects a dip: Some analysts and institutions remain bullish without calling for a significant retest — they expect momentum to carry price higher and for corrections to be mild. Market research firms and prediction pages show a range of outcomes and target prices. changelly.com
- Technical signals aren’t guarantees: Moving averages and patterns indicate probabilities, not certainties. Unexpected macro events or regulatory surprises can invalidate technical setups quickly. Business Insider
Actionable checklist (if you want to act)
- Set alerts at $126K (resistance zone), $115K (short-term support), $104K (50-week SMA), and $99K (psychological level).
- Decide allocation approach: full-size, phased, or DCA.
- Reduce leverage or close marginal positions if you’re short-term leveraged.
- Keep 3–6 months of cash or stablecoin ready to buy on confirmed support.
- Review stop-loss placement for every trade.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries significant risk; past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Do at your won risk.
Conclusion
In short: a short-term Bitcoin pullback to the 50-week moving average near $101K–$104K is a scenario flagged by multiple analysts and market desks, driven by leverage dynamics and historical behavior around long-term averages. Such a move would likely be a healthy reset in the context of a broader bull market — but it requires careful risk management for traders and presents an accumulation opportunity for patient investors. Watch derivatives metrics, on-chain flows, and volume at the 50-week level to judge whether the dip is a temporary flush or a deeper correction. FastBull
Sources (selected)
- Cointelegraph coverage of the “final flush” thesis and analyst quotes. FastBull
- CoinDesk notes on the 50-week SMA and its importance. CoinDesk
- CoinStats aggregation of the Cointelegraph story and commentary. CoinStats
- Bitcoin pullback Magazine reporting on price action and analyst take on possible sub-$100K tests. Bitcoin pullback Magazine
- Barchart and exchange data for moving average levels and technical readings. Barchart.com
- Investopedia/MarketWatch and price-tracking reports for broader cycle context. Investopedia
Author review
Author: Ali hamza
